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	<title>It Talks--上海魏武挥的博客 &#187; 3G</title>
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		<title>关于中国电信3G的两条新闻</title>
		<link>http://www.weiwuhui.com/2416.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.weiwuhui.com/2416.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2009 17:27:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>魏武挥</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[TMT乱弹]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3G]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[电信]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[第一条：3G现在中国电信是老大，新闻出处这里； 第二条，中国电信打算修改它的3G收费标准，改时长为流量，新闻出处这里。 前后有些关联。用户多嘛，自然用BT下载的人就多，自然电信就扛不住，要修改标准了。 关于电信为何是老大，有人是这样评论的，算是说到了一些点，但不是要点。电信做老大是有它天然优势的，就是它手握着中国可以说最大的有线网络，从固话（用户端互联网接入的半壁江山啊）到机房服务器。这一块优势，是移动和联通绝对无法匹敌的。如果说还有竞争者的话，广电网倒是强大的对手，惜乎它是不能搞什么无线通讯的。 握有如此之大的网络，自然就是握有强大的资源。我早年在当时还叫邮电的机构里做过进口贸易，知道一个采购合同是怎么样的一个数字：一百万美元以下的采购都是很小的case。这样的采购量的诱惑，让那些手机生产商，比如三星，深度定制一些电信的3G手机（当然不是免费的，但合同上的付款方式可以签的几乎和免费没什么差别），那是根本不在话下。当年联通狂推CDMA也没见什么动静，就是吃了没有资源所以无法大面积推出各种终端（手机）的亏。 终端用户使用3G，其实网络质量如何他们是无从感觉的，资费嘛，说实话，也是半斤八两，所以这个终端设备很重要。几乎可以认定，谁在终端设备上有优势，谁就能在目前的阶段胜出。而中电信，在这上面的资源优势，是任何一个终端设备生产厂商都无法忽视的。 另外一个有趣的事实是，由于它直接握有固话，就可以很容易做到3G电话和固话之间的免费通讯。这一点，很利于它的社区推广。比如我老妈，就因为这个，立刻改用了天翼通。呵呵，她可是奔七的人了，十分之新锐啊！ 用户一多，自然什么人都有。大量的BT下载吃掉了电信的带宽容量，让它很是头疼，于是很自然就有修改收费标准的打算。我是不相信什么运营3G业务还没什么经验之类的话的，电信内部人士的那句话虽然朦胧，但却道出了真谛： 我们采取按时长计费的方式，主要是考虑与电信宽带业务的捆绑 一直以来，我就奇怪为什么使用互联网要按照时长来缴费，而不是实际使用的流量。这个疑问也没得到过令人信服的解答。我只能这样推断：有测算表明，按时长收费比按流量收费收入更高。因为我时刻牢记住一句话——那是我一个很接近电信高层的朋友说的——在电信，最不缺的，就是人才。 说到底，修改收费标准，更容易让它和移动/联通在一条线上竞争，至少在价格上，终端用户可以有一个直观的比较。到目前为止，第一期布局我想电信已经完成且大获全胜，是时候亮出它的刀子，来近身肉搏一下了。 Copyleft &#169; 2010 知识共享署名-非商业性使用-禁止演绎 注意：转载勿改标题！ItTalks -- 魏武挥的Blog (digitalfingerprint:fc4f8fc31f70097eea4b780b13146415) 欢迎 浏览我收集的信息图 关注我的微博 访问我的分享 与本日志可能相关的文章有：3G虚热么？ (10)<table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" border="0"  style="clear: both;">
    
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>第一条：3G现在中国电信是老大，新闻出处<a href="http://it.sohu.com/20090701/n264893412.shtml" target="_blank">这里</a>；</p>
<p>第二条，中国电信打算修改它的3G收费标准，改时长为流量，新闻出处<a href="http://tech.sina.com.cn/t/3g/2009-07-03/01563231563.shtml" target="_blank">这里</a>。</p>
<p>前后有些关联。用户多嘛，自然用BT下载的人就多，自然电信就扛不住，要修改标准了。</p>
<p>关于电信为何是老大，有人是<a href="http://www.cnbeta.com/articles/87947.htm" target="_blank">这样</a>评论的，算是说到了一些点，但不是要点。电信做老大是有它天然优势的，就是它手握着中国可以说最大的有线网络，从固话（用户端互联网接入的半壁江山啊）到机房服务器。这一块优势，是移动和联通绝对无法匹敌的。如果说还有竞争者的话，广电网倒是强大的对手，惜乎它是不能搞什么无线通讯的。</p>
<p>握有如此之大的网络，自然就是握有强大的资源。我早年在当时还叫邮电的机构里做过进口贸易，知道一个采购合同是怎么样的一个数字：一百万美元以下的采购都是很小的case。这样的采购量的诱惑，让那些手机生产商，比如三星，深度定制一些电信的3G手机（当然不是免费的，但合同上的付款方式可以签的几乎和免费没什么差别），那是根本不在话下。当年联通狂推CDMA也没见什么动静，就是吃了没有资源所以无法大面积推出各种终端（手机）的亏。</p>
<p>终端用户使用3G，其实网络质量如何他们是无从感觉的，资费嘛，说实话，也是半斤八两，所以这个终端设备很重要。几乎可以认定，谁在终端设备上有优势，谁就能在目前的阶段胜出。而中电信，在这上面的资源优势，是任何一个终端设备生产厂商都无法忽视的。</p>
<p>另外一个有趣的事实是，由于它直接握有固话，就可以很容易做到3G电话和固话之间的免费通讯。这一点，很利于它的社区推广。比如我老妈，就因为这个，立刻改用了天翼通。呵呵，她可是奔七的人了，十分之新锐啊！</p>
<p>用户一多，自然什么人都有。大量的BT下载吃掉了电信的带宽容量，让它很是头疼，于是很自然就有修改收费标准的打算。我是不相信什么运营3G业务还没什么经验之类的话的，电信内部人士的那句话虽然朦胧，但却道出了真谛：</p>
<blockquote><p>我们采取按时长计费的方式，主要是考虑与电信宽带业务的捆绑</p></blockquote>
<p>一直以来，我就奇怪为什么使用互联网要按照时长来缴费，而不是实际使用的流量。这个疑问也没得到过令人信服的解答。我只能这样推断：有测算表明，按时长收费比按流量收费收入更高。因为我时刻牢记住一句话——那是我一个很接近电信高层的朋友说的——在电信，最不缺的，就是人才。</p>
<p>说到底，修改收费标准，更容易让它和移动/联通在一条线上竞争，至少在价格上，终端用户可以有一个直观的比较。到目前为止，第一期布局我想电信已经完成且大获全胜，是时候亮出它的刀子，来近身肉搏一下了。</p>
<hr /><small>Copyleft &copy; 2010 知识共享署名-非商业性使用-禁止演绎 注意：转载勿改标题！<br />ItTalks -- 魏武挥的Blog (digitalfingerprint:fc4f8fc31f70097eea4b780b13146415)<br><br>

欢迎 浏览<a href="http://infographic.weiwuhui.com">我收集的信息图</a> 关注<a href="http://t.sina.com.cn/weiwuhui">我的微博</a>  访问<a href="http://read.weiwuhui.com">我的分享</a> </small><table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" border="0"  style="clear: both;">
    
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</table><h3  class="related_post_title">与本日志可能相关的文章有：</h3><ul class="related_post"><li><a href="http://www.weiwuhui.com/2323.html" title="3G虚热么？">3G虚热么？</a> (10)</li></ul>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>12</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>3G虚热么？</title>
		<link>http://www.weiwuhui.com/2323.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.weiwuhui.com/2323.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:38:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>魏武挥</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[TMT乱弹]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[3G]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://weiwuhui.com/2323.html</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[白天耗在《神探狄仁杰》上太久了，搞得俺老人家只好深更半夜地奋发于一篇关于twitter的稿子，忽然从google reader里看到曹兄增辉的3G虚热一文（没办法，我最近有点注意力不能有效聚焦），颇不以为然。在共享备注里写了几句，意犹未尽的，就在这里写上一篇blog。 增辉开宗明义就说： 运营商数千万广告打出了一个3G的虚热。 我倒不是这么看。3G——移动互联网——这是一个完全和互联网不一样的网络，一个超出我们现在想像的产业，事实上，已经叫了有年头了。现在三大运营商发力，要抢占这个可以说是朝阳产业（相较之下，互联网真得有点算夕阳了），数千万广告算什么？ 开路而已。 我有个朋友在上海电信里做事，说是要在短短一年里，放出这么多年移动放出的号的数目。口气不可不为大。但战略上的抢位意图是非常清晰的：未来的人们的随身终端，将是手机，不是电脑。 随身终端是个什么概念？那可真是和人的衣食住行的“生活”息息相关，那就是巨头的game。 宏观政策上对移动互联网的重视也可见一斑，这个通那个通的，统统重组，整合成今天的移动、联通、电信，移动拿着最大的资源，只好高举民族大旗；联通继续欧洲的先进技术，电信呢？则弄来了据说是美国军方所使用的通讯技术，高保真高加密（后者真不晓得有多大用处）还高环保，更重要的是，凭借固话业务之便。这个市场，数千万真得是连个响儿都听不见，谈何虚热。 前两日我搞了台G1，也就是gphone一代。旧手机里数百个电话号码要迁移，可难为死我了，一直就懒得动它。 今儿晚上在网上整理我的gmail通讯录，忽然就发现，借助G1的wifi，我在电脑web上的gmail通讯录中的任何改动，那台G1，就自动update了。 真得叫我惊喜之余，开始期盼3G了，毕竟wifi不是什么地方都有的。 至于资费问题。 呵呵，任何一个上世纪就开始用手机的人，大抵都不会忘了那是个什么样的资费年代。贵？如此之贵，照样就这么成就了7亿手机号的市场。问题根本不在贵上，而在于价格比较之上。 我有足够的理由相信，三大运营商的价格应该是差不多的，那么，我也有足够的理由相信，3G资费几何，只要不是贵得离谱（不要搞出一个月1000块来），呵呵，just a piece of cake。 Copyleft &#169; 2010 知识共享署名-非商业性使用-禁止演绎 注意：转载勿改标题！ItTalks -- 魏武挥的Blog (digitalfingerprint:fc4f8fc31f70097eea4b780b13146415) 欢迎 浏览我收集的信息图 关注我的微博 访问我的分享 与本日志可能相关的文章有：关于中国电信3G的两条新闻 (12)<table class="wumii-related-items" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="3" border="0"  style="clear: both;">
    
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>白天耗在《神探狄仁杰》上太久了，搞得俺老人家只好深更半夜地奋发于一篇关于twitter的稿子，忽然从google reader里看到曹兄增辉的<a href="http://www.caozenghui.cn/archives/562.html" target="_blank">3G虚热</a>一文（没办法，我最近有点注意力不能有效聚焦），颇不以为然。在共享备注里写了几句，意犹未尽的，就在这里写上一篇blog。</p>
<p>增辉开宗明义就说：</p>
<blockquote><p>运营商数千万广告打出了一个3G的虚热。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>我倒不是这么看。3G——移动互联网——这是一个完全和互联网不一样的网络，一个超出我们现在想像的产业，事实上，已经叫了有年头了。现在三大运营商发力，要抢占这个可以说是朝阳产业（相较之下，互联网真得有点算夕阳了），数千万广告算什么？</p>
<p>开路而已。</p>
<p>我有个朋友在上海电信里做事，说是要在短短一年里，放出这么多年移动放出的号的数目。口气不可不为大。但战略上的抢位意图是非常清晰的：未来的人们的随身终端，将是手机，不是电脑。</p>
<p>随身终端是个什么概念？那可真是和人的衣食住行的“<a href="http://weiwuhui.com/2305.html" target="_blank">生活</a>”息息相关，那就是巨头的game。</p>
<p>宏观政策上对移动互联网的重视也可见一斑，这个通那个通的，统统重组，整合成今天的移动、联通、电信，移动拿着最大的资源，只好高举民族大旗；联通继续欧洲的先进技术，电信呢？则弄来了据说是美国军方所使用的通讯技术，高保真高加密（后者真不晓得有多大用处）还高环保，更重要的是，凭借固话业务之便。这个市场，数千万真得是连个响儿都听不见，谈何虚热。</p>
<p>前两日我搞了台G1，也就是gphone一代。旧手机里数百个电话号码要迁移，可难为死我了，一直就懒得动它。</p>
<p>今儿晚上在网上整理我的gmail通讯录，忽然就发现，借助G1的wifi，我在电脑web上的gmail通讯录中的任何改动，那台G1，就自动update了。</p>
<p>真得叫我惊喜之余，开始期盼3G了，毕竟wifi不是什么地方都有的。</p>
<p>至于资费问题。</p>
<p>呵呵，任何一个上世纪就开始用手机的人，大抵都不会忘了那是个什么样的资费年代。贵？如此之贵，照样就这么成就了7亿手机号的市场。问题根本不在贵上，而在于价格比较之上。</p>
<p>我有足够的理由相信，三大运营商的价格应该是差不多的，那么，我也有足够的理由相信，3G资费几何，只要不是贵得离谱（不要搞出一个月1000块来），呵呵，just a piece of cake。</p>
<hr /><small>Copyleft &copy; 2010 知识共享署名-非商业性使用-禁止演绎 注意：转载勿改标题！<br />ItTalks -- 魏武挥的Blog (digitalfingerprint:fc4f8fc31f70097eea4b780b13146415)<br><br>

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